Latifi vs. Oleinik Live Free.
UFC Vegas 61: Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik Live Free TV Broadcast 1 October 2022.
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]>>UFC Vegas 61: Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik Live Free TV Broadcast 1 October 2022" width="560" height="auto" loading="lazy">##]>>UFC Vegas 61: Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik Live Free TV Broadcast 1 October 2022" width="560" height="auto" style="margin: auto;display: block; text-align:center; width:100%">
Event: UFC Vegas 61
Date: 01.10.2022
Most, if not all, of Dern’s fights boil down to being striker vs. grappler matchups at their cores. That’s simply due to her Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills being virtually unparalleled by most in MMA, male or female. Against Yan, it’s no different.
A Sanda specialist of the highest order, Yan loves her patented sidekicks and aggressive punch flurries, both of which she’ll need to be careful with to avoid overextending and falling to the ground when engaged by Dern. While Dern has shown significant power throughout her career, her technique’s tightness has fluctuated. Against Yan, she can’t sloppily run forward or she’ll pay the price.
The fight comes down to whether or not Dern gets things to the ground—she’ll win if she does, she won’t if she doesn’t. Yan has continually worked on her grappling since joining Team Alpha Male in 2021. That, accompanied by her movement and a patient approach similar to her Marina Rodriguez bout, gives her a good shot at replicating Rodriguez’s win against Dern. The only problem is that she’ll have to keep it up and defend grappling threats for 25 minutes.
Rose Namajunas, Jessica Andrade, Zhang Weili and Carla Esparza have all held the belt in the last five years, with Esparza being the current titleholder. 'Cookie Monster' will look to defend her strap at UFC 281 in October, while the rest of the contenders battle their way towards title contention.
A Dern submission is the safe pick, but Yan’s physicality and strength shouldn’t be underestimated against the BJJ ace who struggles with her overall takedown approach.
The 44-year-old former Jungle Fights champion has that wood-like “old” man strength. He’s just durable and deceptively dangerous. Riding a two-fight win streak, Trinaldo has proven he can still hang with some of the young guns, whether on the feet or the mat.
Since losing a big bout against Vicent Luque, Randy Brown has seemingly turned a new leaf, winning three in a row. Brown has always packed big power and pulled off some sneaky submissions when opportunities arise. The lanky “Rude Boy” will want to keep the dense Trinaldo off of him at all costs. From range, he can have his way and chip at the Brazilian’s rugged exterior.
Mackenzie Dern, a grappling prodigy, has transitioned very effectively into MMA. A former IBJJF champion, Dern is levels above her peers on the mat which has shown in her UFC career so far. Since signing with the promotion in 2018, she has already picked up four submission wins and sits at No.5 in the 115-pound rankings.
Depending on how aggressive Trinaldo gets, however, Brown may catch him in an advantageous position or get caught himself. With both coming off two decisions, they may be more amped to find a finish in that empty Apex.
At UFC Vegas 61, Dern will square off against Yan Xiaonan in the main event. Xiaonan has been on the roster since 2017 and launched her UFC career with five successive decision wins. Two losses on the trot have halted her momentum and she sits one place behind Dern on the strawweight ladder.
Despite his recent losses against Victor Henry and Timur Valiev, Raoni Barcelos is one of the more well-rounded sluggers at 135 pounds. In a way, he’s kind of similar to Trinaldo but not quite as old at 35.
Yan Xiaonan is yet to record a finish inside the octagon, while Mackenzie Dern has never been stopped in her professional career. Xiaonan primarily relies on her striking accuracy and volume to outpoint her opponents and will likely be one step ahead of her American counterpart in the stand-up exchanges.
Trevin Jones is desperate for a win here after two losses to lesser opponents. Not to say Javid Basharat and Saidyokub Kakhramonov aren’t good, but they’re less experienced and proven than Barcelos. Jones has proven to have solid power in his hands, so he could very well be the one to crack Barcelos’ chin. Engaging in a firefight would be risky, but it’s likely worth the reward as Barcelos will throw in takedown threats behind his brawling nature.
Xiaonan doesn't have the power to put away Dern and will need to be flawless for all five rounds if she is to emerge victorious. However, the Chinese standout has never fought for 25 minutes in her career and her cardio will likely be put to the test in this one.
On the flipside, Dern has fought 25 minutes previously, and despite losing on that occasion, looked relatively comfortable in the final round. The jiu-jitsu phenom will have to be patient against Xiaonan and wait for the opportune moment to attack a takedown. If she manages to take the fight to the mat, it's only a matter of time before she finds a submission.
While a striking-heavy unanimous decision win for Xiaonan is certainly well within the realm of possibility, Dern's grappling prowess might just turn out to be the x-factor on the night.
Don Shainis is being given no chance on short notice. To an extent, that’s pretty fair. Especially considering how talented and versatile Sodiq Yusuff is as a striker.
With that said, Yusuff hasn’t been a big finisher on his recent stretch, and yes, his opponents have been better, but Shainis is as game as they come. In his three losses, only Shainis’ MMA debut saw him finished, losing via doctor’s stoppage.
The former Cage Titans champion shouldn’t pose much of a threat on the feet to Yusuff, so if he can out wrestle “Super,” he’ll give himself a shot at the upset. Expecting the fight to end before a round and a half for either man seems fairly absurd, though.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is switching up its usual production standards for its upcoming strawweight main event clash. Mackenzie Dern is set to take on Yan Xiaonan in a polar opposite matchup in the UFC Apex arena that will be closed off to the public and media. Yeah, that’s right: a good old empty arena showdown featuring one of the MMA’s finest grapplers versus one of the strawweight division’s best strikers.
The adversaries couldn’t be more different in their style and approach to the cage. Dern’s top-notch Brazilian jiu-jitsu has earned her seven submission victories in her professional mixed martial arts career. However, the decorated grappling sensation has yet to taste the triumph of victory by knockout. Contrarily, Xiaonan has collected seven knockouts on her resume compared to zero submissions tallied.
Regardless of the outcome, a definitive win here will more than likely bring the victor to the doorstep of a title shot. With that in mind, let’s look at the latest Dern vs. Yan odds and share some key fight insights via our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, including a prediction for the final result.
Daniel Santos is still getting his feet wet in the promotion, and a second career loss to Julio Arce was a tough one to get started with. Against John Castaneda, he’s closer to where he should be in the pecking order, but Castaneda is rapidly gaining momentum.
Castaneda followed up a big knockout over seasoned veteran Eddie Wineland with a February triangle choke of Miles Johns. The activity has maybe been a bit more spread than preferred, but Castaneda is continually proving to be a threat in more ways than one.
Anyone who saw Davis’ performance against Thomas Gifford will never forget the life-altering beatdown they witnessed. A sickeningly thumping puncher, Davis is game to exchange with the best of them, and when he lands, he lands heavy.
Viacheslav Borshchev started his UFC career brilliantly in January by scoring a liver shot knockout against Dakota Bush. Unfortunately, he then ran into “D-1” Marc Diakiese and was smothered into oblivion. That would be stunning to see happen against Davis, and these two will likely go to war. With Davis returning for the first time since Jan. 2021, expect a lot of pent-up aggression to be let out.
Alexey Oleynik vs. Ilir Latifi is a fight so perfectly heavyweight that it should be entertainingly terrible the longer it lasts … but that shouldn’t be very long.
“The Zohan” rebounded from his first-ever loss to Brandon Davis by smashing Boston Salmon and Journey Newson in under three minutes combined and earning himself a Performance of the Night bonus along the way. The success wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive stoppage losses. All of his pro victories have come by knockout within 2:30.
Now eight years removed from his stint on the first-ever TUF: Latin America, Cannetti struggled to a 2-5 UFC start. His most recent effort proved his most impressive, however, as he crushed Kris Moutinho in just over two minutes. He gives up three inches of height and five inches of reach to Costa.
There’s been a trend lately of fighters who, after losing due to cardio problems, become so utterly terrified of gassing out that they barely throw strikes. It happened to Yohan Lainesse, it happened to Louis Cosce, and it looks like it happened to Costa against Tony Kelley. Costa threw just 37 significant strikes in the first round of that fight compared to over 100 against Adrian Yanez, and while that latter pace probably wasn’t sustainable, he overcompensated so much that he lost what made him effective in the first place.
Still, even a fraction of a fraction of Costa’s abilities should be sufficient to win him this fight. He’s taller, more durable, younger, more technically sound with his strikes, and a hell of a lot more powerful. If he doesn’t chin Cannetti in the first few minutes, he might be broken for good.
Oleynik is practically a shell of an athlete at this point who is still somehow capable of sneakily catching his rare submissions whenever the fight falls to the ground. He was once a fairly dangerous puncher, but at 45, his technique—along with cardio—quickly goes out the window.
Whether at light heavyweight or in this current heavyweight landscape, Latifi is “The Sledgehammer” for a reason. The Swede is a fire hydrant of a man and shouldn’t need many shots to shatter the eroding chin of the Russian. Latifi has solid grappling chops to boot and is very physically strong, but like Yan against Dern, there’s no reason whatsoever to even risk playing with grappling in this one.
The UFC time travels back to 2020 inside its Apex facility on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022 for an empty UFC Vegas 61. No fans, no media, no problem for the fighters who will start the action with the prelims at 4 p.m. EST.
Top strawweight competitors collide in the evening’s main event when Mackenzie Dern battles Yan Xiaonan. For China’s “Fury,” it will be Yan’s first UFC appearance as a headliner while it’s Dern’s second. The Shenyang, Liaoning native aims to snap a two-fight skid at the expense of her Brazilian counterpart. A win for Dern continues her momentum rebuild after a tough loss in her prior main event showing.
“All In” followed up his successful Contender Series appearance with three consecutive UFC victories before running afoul of Sean Strickland. Undeterred, he’s since won four of five, including a narrow decision over Jacob Malkoun in June 2022. His pro finishes are split 10/5 between submissions and knockouts.
Poland’s Jotko saw a 6-1 UFC start give way to three straight defeats, two of them via knockout. He now sits at 5-1 in his last six with notable wins over Eryk Anders and Gerald Meerschaert. He stands an inch shorter than Allen but will have a two-inch reach advantage.
Jotko’s role in the Middleweight division is to test your wrestling. His striking, takedown offense, and takedown defense let him outstrike grappling specialists and outwrestles strikers who haven’t properly rounded out their games. That’s fine and dandy against one-dimensional fighters, but not a fellow all-rounder like Allen, who’s also by far the better finisher.
That looks like the difference here. With a wrestling deadlock likely, Allen’s higher-volume striking attack figures to catch the judges’ eyes than Jotko’s robotic, powerless kickboxing. Don’t expect a barnburner, but do expect Allen to outwork him to a decision win.
After a one-and-done first UFC stint saw her lose a split decision to Leah Letson, Stoliarenko amassed five wins on the regional circuit to return to the promotion in 2020. Though she lost the first three bouts of her second stint, she came up big in July 2022 with a bonus-winning 42-second armbar of Jessica-Rose Clark. She steps in for Leah Letson on less than two months’ notice.
Chandler, a Cesar Gracie product, fell short in her 2018 pro debut under the Invicta banner. She’s unbeaten since, most recently ending a nearly two-year layoff with a decision over Courtney King. She is the taller woman by an inch.
Grishin versus Philipe Lins is a fight between two of the slowest workers in the division, as both land exactly 3.40 significant strikes per minute. If previous fights are any indication, this bout should turn into a staring match in short order, punctuated by 50/50 grappling positions along the fence. It's hard to recommend touching this fight in standard DFS contests, as it seems built to frustrate fans for 15 minutes.
As an arm bar specialist, it's difficult to imagine that Stoliarenko would want anything to do with Chelsea Chandler when it comes to striking. The debutante has surprising power for the division and can mix her targets well. Instead, I expect Stoliarenko to try and ground this fight early and often, leading to quite a few stall positions along the fence line. However it ends, I don't expect the Lithuanian fighter to be at range long enough to get anywhere near this total.
Brendan Allen will go to his wrestling when he needs to, but Jotko has been notoriously difficult to take down in his UFC career, keeping a defense rate of 83 percent. Moreover, Allen isn't exactly an efficient wrestler, succeeding on just 41 percent of his attempts so far. This should lead to a range kickboxing bout in which Jotko can use his speed and footwork to continually pick off the opponent.
In terms of action potential, Chandler is the most exciting addition to the women’s Bantamweight roster in a long time, a genuine knockout puncher with a quality ground game to back it up. She’s not going to smash Amanda Nunes or anything, but she’s a ton of fun to watch and I hope she does well.
Maybe it’s that hope talking, but I really like her chances here. While she’s still green enough to get caught in Stoliarenko’s mousetrap of an armbar, she’s by far the more destructive of the two on the feet and Stoliarenko isn’t exactly a defensive wizard. Since Chandler is also ostensibly the stronger wrestler, it really comes down to whether she has the composure to brutalize Stoliarenko with body and head strikes without instinctively going for takedowns. I’ll be an optimist and say yes.
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